Sources and simplifications
Every reference cited on this site, and every place a figure idealizes the real system.
References§
- (1894). Contributions to the mathematical theory of evolution. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 185, 71–110. doi:10.1098/rsta.1894.0003. primary Introduces the term “standard deviation”. (Standard deviation)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §1.3.5.6 Measures of Scale. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Standard deviation)
- (2007). Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, 3rd edition. Duxbury (Thomson Brooks/Cole). ISBN 978-0-534-39942-9. textbook Ch. 2–4 (distributions, moments), §5.3 (central limit theorem), ch. 7 (survey sampling, the n − 1 divisor), ch. 9 (testing). (Standard deviation)
- (1983). Algorithms for computing the sample variance: analysis and recommendations. The American Statistician 37(3), 242–247. doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483115. primary (Standard deviation)
- (1962). Note on a method for calculating corrected sums of squares and products. Technometrics 4(3), 419–420. doi:10.1080/00401706.1962.10490022. primary (Standard deviation)
- (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-40341-3. scholarship Ch. 2 (de Moivre’s normal approximation, 1733), ch. 4 (Laplace and the central limit theorem), ch. 8 (Galton). (Standard deviation)
- (1925). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh (ch. III, §12, p. 47). primary (Standard deviation)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §1.3.6.6.1 Normal Distribution. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Normal & z-scores)
- (2024). NIST Digital Library of Mathematical Functions, §7.9 Error functions: continued fractions. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Normal & z-scores)
- (1994). The three sigma rule. The American Statistician 48(2), 88–91. doi:10.1080/00031305.1994.10476030. primary (Normal & z-scores)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §1.3.6.7.1 Cumulative Distribution Function of the Standard Normal Distribution. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Normal & z-scores)
- (1920). Notes on the history of correlation. Biometrika 13(1), 25–45. doi:10.1093/biomet/13.1.25. primary p. 25: Pearson recalls naming the Laplace–Gaussian curve the “normal” curve and regrets that the name suggests other distributions are abnormal. Added by the verifier. (Normal & z-scores)
- (1889). Natural Inheritance. Macmillan, London (ch. V, the apparatus later called the Galton board). primary (Binomial & Poisson)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §1.3.6.6.18 Binomial Distribution. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Binomial & Poisson)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §1.3.6.6.19 Poisson Distribution. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Binomial & Poisson)
- (1960). An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution. Pacific Journal of Mathematics 10(4), 1181–1197. doi:10.2140/pjm.1960.10.1181. primary (Binomial & Poisson)
- (1987). Bortkiewicz’s data and the law of small numbers. International Statistical Review 55(2), 173–181. doi:10.2307/1403193. scholarship (Binomial & Poisson)
- (2007). Statistics, 4th edition. W. W. Norton. ISBN 978-0-393-92972-0. textbook Ch. 4 (the standard deviation), ch. 5 (the normal approximation), ch. 16–18 (chance variability and the CLT), ch. 21 (accuracy of percentages). (Central limit theorem)
- (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185(4157), 1124–1131. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. primary (Central limit theorem)
- (2007). The most dangerous equation. American Scientist 95(3), 249–256. doi:10.1511/2007.65.1026. review (Central limit theorem)
- (2004). All of Statistics: A Concise Course in Statistical Inference. Springer. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-21736-9. textbook §5.4 (central limit theorem), §6.3 (confidence sets), ch. 10 (hypothesis testing, p-values). (Central limit theorem)
- (2011). A History of the Central Limit Theorem: From Classical to Modern Probability Theory. Springer. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-87857-7. scholarship (Central limit theorem)
- (2015). What teachers should know about the bootstrap: resampling in the undergraduate statistics curriculum. The American Statistician 69(4), 371–386. doi:10.1080/00031305.2015.1089789. review (Central limit theorem)
- (1937). Outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 236(767), 333–380. doi:10.1098/rsta.1937.0005. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §7.1.4 What are confidence intervals?. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Confidence intervals)
- (2014). Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 21, 1157–1164. doi:10.3758/s13423-013-0572-3. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (2016). Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations. European Journal of Epidemiology 31, 337–350. doi:10.1007/s10654-016-0149-3. review (Confidence intervals)
- (1908). The probable error of a mean. Biometrika 6(1), 1–25. doi:10.1093/biomet/6.1.1. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (2008). On Student’s 1908 article “The probable error of a mean”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103(481), 1–7. doi:10.1198/016214508000000030. scholarship (Confidence intervals)
- (2001). Interval estimation for a binomial proportion. Statistical Science 16(2), 101–133. doi:10.1214/ss/1009213286. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (1927). Probable inference, the law of succession, and statistical inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 22(158), 209–212. doi:10.1080/01621459.1927.10502953. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (1998). Approximate is better than “exact” for interval estimation of binomial proportions. The American Statistician 52(2), 119–126. doi:10.1080/00031305.1998.10480550. primary (Confidence intervals)
- (2016). The ASA statement on p-values: context, process, and purpose. The American Statistician 70(2), 129–133. doi:10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108. institutional (Confidence intervals)
- (2018). Redefine statistical significance. Nature Human Behaviour 2, 6–10. doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0189-z. primary (P-values & power)
- (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. ISBN 978-0-8058-0283-2. textbook (P-values & power)
- (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57(1), 289–300. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x. primary Added by the verifier for the false-discovery-rate sentence in chapter 6. (P-values & power)
- (2011). False-positive psychology: undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science 22(11), 1359–1366. doi:10.1177/0956797611417632. primary (P-values & power)
- (1969). Repeated significance tests on accumulating data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 132(2), 235–244. doi:10.2307/2343787. primary (P-values & power)
- (2005). Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Medicine 2(8), e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124. primary (P-values & power)
- (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science 349(6251), aac4716. doi:10.1126/science.aac4716. primary (P-values & power)
- (2012). NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, §7.2.2.2 Sample sizes required. National Institute of Standards and Technology. standard (Sample size calculator)
- (1977). Sampling Techniques, 3rd edition (ch. 4, the estimation of sample size). John Wiley & Sons, New York. ISBN 978-0-471-16240-7. textbook (Sample size calculator)
Simplifications§
- The simulations draw every value independently from an infinite population (sampling with replacement).
- The figures treat “normal” as an exact description of a population.
- The figures assume every trial has the same probability and every trial is independent of the others.
- The lab draws each sample value independently, with replacement, from the population you drew.
- The interval rain assumes a perfect random sample: every value independent, drawn from the population of interest, measured without bias.
- The figures use a two-sample z-test: outcomes are normal and their standard deviation (10 points) is known.
- The calculator assumes the four binomial conditions hold exactly.
- The simulation gives every ball an independent bounce at every row, right with probability p, and nothing else.
- The calculator treats the statistic as following the standard normal or Student’s t curve exactly when the null hypothesis is true.
- The percentile and probability readouts treat the population as exactly normal, with the mean and standard deviation you enter.
- The table describes the standard normal distribution exactly.